Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses

doi:10.1111/j.1749-4877.2007.00061.x

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	Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses
	Zhang, Zhibin 1; Li, Zhenqing 2; Tao, Yi 1; Chen, Min3 ; Wen, Xinyu 4; Xu, Lei 1; Tian, Huidong 1; Stenseth, Nils Chr 5
	2007-09-01
发表期刊	INTEGRATIVE ZOOLOGY
ISSN	1749-4877
卷号	2 期号:3 页码:144-153
摘要	Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human history. Today this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of the world. However, impacts of global climate variation (e.g. El Nino and Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) and global warming on plagues are largely unknown. Using cross-spectral analysis and cross-wavelet analysis, we have analyzed the relationship between increase rate of human plague in China during 1871-2003 and the following climate factors (as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], Sea Surface Temperature of east Pacific equator [SST] and air Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere [NHT]). We found in the frequency domain that increase rate of human plague was closely associated with SOI and SST. Cross-spectral analysis reveals that significant coherencies between increase rate of human plague and ENSO were found over short periods (2-3 years), medium periods (6-7 years) and long periods (11-12 years, 30-40 years). Cross-wavelet analysis reveals that increase rate of human plague oscillates in phase with SOI, but in anti-phase with SST over periods of 2-4 years and approximately 8 years (6-10 years). These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variation may be important for occurrences of human plague in China. However, there is a need for a further analysis of the underlying mechanism between human plague in China and ENSO.
关键词	El Nino/Southern Oscillation global climate variation human plague northern hemisphere air tempe rature sea surface temperature southern oscillation index
DOI	10.1111/j.1749-4877.2007.00061.x
语种	英语
资助项目	Albert Einstein Professorship ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[GJHZ0701-7]
WOS研究方向	Zoology
WOS类目	Zoology
WOS记录号	WOS:000208683000005
出版者	WILEY-BLACKWELL
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/4483
专题	应用数学研究所
通讯作者	Zhang, Zhibin
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Zool, State Key Lab Integrated Management Pest Insects, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Lab Quantitat Vegetat Ecol, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China 4.Peking Univ, Atmosphere Dept, Coll Phys, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China 5.Univ Oslo, Dept Biol, CEES, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhibin,Li, Zhenqing,Tao, Yi,et al. Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses[J]. INTEGRATIVE ZOOLOGY,2007,2(3):144-153.
APA	Zhang, Zhibin.,Li, Zhenqing.,Tao, Yi.,Chen, Min.,Wen, Xinyu.,...&Stenseth, Nils Chr.(2007).Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses.INTEGRATIVE ZOOLOGY,2(3),144-153.
MLA	Zhang, Zhibin,et al."Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses".INTEGRATIVE ZOOLOGY 2.3(2007):144-153.