constructionandanalysisofcommonforeigntradecyclebasedonmsvaranempiricalstudyofglobalexperience

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	constructionandanalysisofcommonforeigntradecyclebasedonmsvaranempiricalstudyofglobalexperience
	Zhang Lili; Zhang Xun; Cheng Ke
	2015
发表期刊	journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity
ISSN	1009-6124
卷号	28 期号:2 页码:360
摘要	This paper proves the co-movement of foreign trade in different countries or areas which belong to ten economic regions by MS-VAR model. The studies show that trade crisis lags behind economic crisis and spreads from the core of the economic crisis to its periphery which is closely-related with it. The trade crisis corresponding to the US subprime crisis spreads faster than before, which has struck worldwide foreign trade. In order to get the main factors affecting trade crisis, the authors construct composite indices which are proxies of economic growth and price levels of internal and external regions. The results of logistic and linear panel models show that economic growth affects more to trade cycle than price level. The results of panel models with dummy variable of trade crisis show that the outside economic growth do bad to the recovery of internal foreign trade during trade crisis corresponding to Mexican peso crisis, the Asian financial crisis and the Russian debt crisis, while the opposite is true during the internet bubble burst and the US subprime crisis.
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/43729
专题	系统科学研究所
作者单位	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Lili,Zhang Xun,Cheng Ke. constructionandanalysisofcommonforeigntradecyclebasedonmsvaranempiricalstudyofglobalexperience[J]. journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity,2015,28(2):360.
APA	Zhang Lili,Zhang Xun,&Cheng Ke.(2015).constructionandanalysisofcommonforeigntradecyclebasedonmsvaranempiricalstudyofglobalexperience.journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity,28(2),360.
MLA	Zhang Lili,et al."constructionandanalysisofcommonforeigntradecyclebasedonmsvaranempiricalstudyofglobalexperience".journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity 28.2(2015):360.