Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series

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	Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series
	Jayawardena, AW ; Xu, PC; Tsang, FL ; Li, WK
	2006-02-01
发表期刊	HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
ISSN	0262-6667
卷号	51 期号:1 页码:21-44
摘要	A network using radial basis functions (RBFs) as the mapping function in the evolutionary equation for prediction of time series is presented. An RBF network requires the determination of the number of centres of RBFs, their receptive field widths and the linear weights of the network output layer. Traditionally, the number of centres of RBFs is fixed. In this paper, methods to estimate the widths of the receptive fields and the number of centres for the RBFs are introduced. The latter is based on the concept of the generalized degrees of freedom. The linear weights are determined by the least-squares method. The proposed method is then applied to make predictions of six sets of data: two theoretical functions that are known to become chaotic under certain parameter conditions (Henon map and Lorenz map), and four real-time series (discharge data from the Mekong River in Thailand and Laos, and from the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, and sea-surface temperature anomaly data). The results are at least one order of magnitude better than those obtained by a similar model with fixed number of centres as well as by a linear model and a stochastic model for most of the data sets.
关键词	dynamical systems hydrological time series phase space radial basis functions
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000235310600002
出版者	IAHS PRESS, INST HYDROLOGY
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/3549
专题	应用数学研究所
通讯作者	Jayawardena, AW
作者单位	1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Civil Engn, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jayawardena, AW,Xu, PC,Tsang, FL,et al. Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,2006,51(1):21-44.
APA	Jayawardena, AW,Xu, PC,Tsang, FL,&Li, WK.(2006).Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series.HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,51(1),21-44.
MLA	Jayawardena, AW,et al."Determining the structure of a radial basis function network for prediction of nonlinear hydrological time series".HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES 51.1(2006):21-44.