A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting

doi:10.1007/s11424-018-7093-0

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	A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting
	Zhang Xinyu1,2 ; Zheng Yafei 1,3; Wang Shouyang1,2
	2019-04-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
ISSN	1009-6124
卷号	32 期号:2 页码:615-633
摘要	Demand forecasting is often difficult due to the unobservability of the applicable historical demand series. In this study, the authors propose a demand forecasting method based on stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) models and a model average technique. First, considering model uncertainty, a set of alternative SFA models with various combinations of explanatory variables and distribution assumptions are constructed to estimate demands. Second, an average estimate from the estimated demand values is obtained using a model average technique. Finally, future demand forecasts are achieved, with the average estimates used as historical observations. An empirical application of air travel demand forecasting is implemented. The results of a forecasting performance comparison show that in addition to its ability to estimate demand, the proposed method outperforms other common methods in terms of forecasting passenger traffic.
关键词	Air travel demand demand forecasting model average model uncertainty stochastic frontier analysis
DOI	10.1007/s11424-018-7093-0
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71522004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11471324] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71631008] ; Ministry of Education of China[17YJC910011]
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS记录号	WOS:000462987000011
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/34366
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Zhang Xinyu
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Shenwan Hongyuan Secur Co Ltd, Postdoctoral Working Stn, Shanghai 200031, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Xinyu,Zheng Yafei,Wang Shouyang. A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2019,32(2):615-633.
APA	Zhang Xinyu,Zheng Yafei,&Wang Shouyang.(2019).A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,32(2),615-633.
MLA	Zhang Xinyu,et al."A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY 32.2(2019):615-633.