A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns

doi:10.1080/13658816.2018.1514608

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	A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns
	Ma, Ting 1,2,4; Zhu, Rong3 ; Wang, Jianghao 1,2; Zhao, Na 1,2; Pei, Tao 1,2; Du, Yunyan 1,2; Zhou, Chenghu 1,2; Chen, Jie 1,2
	2019
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE
ISSN	1365-8816
卷号	33 期号:1 页码:81-98
摘要	The modelling of human mobility and migration patterns has received much attention due to its substantial importance. Despite long-term efforts, we still lack a modelling framework that captures mobility patterns and further obtains a prospective view of movement trends with regards to diverse impacting factors. Here, we propose a proportional odds model of human mobility and migration (POM-HM) that takes a probabilistic approach to model human movements. Our model is based on the migration probability with a log-logistic distribution under the proportional odds assumption. Explanatory variables are introduced into the model by re-parameterizing the probability distribution function. The two resultant functions, namely, the migration strength and cumulative hazard, are used to estimate regional differences among travel fluxes and their tendencies. The performance of the POM-HM in terms of its validity and accuracy is examined and compared with the gravity model and the radiation model. The probability-based modelling framework enables us to investigate regional variations in migrant fluxes consequently further predict potential future patterns. In short, our modelling approach captures the probabilistic nature of human mobility and migration and furthers our understanding of both the spatiotemporal patterns of population movements and the impacts of various driving forces.
关键词	Human mobility and migration the proportion odds migration probability probability-based modelling
DOI	10.1080/13658816.2018.1514608
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771418] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[QYZDY-SSW-DQC007] ; National Science and Technology Key Project[2016YFB0502301] ; National Key Basic Research Program of China[2015CB954101]
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Information Science & Library Science
WOS类目	Computer Science, Information Systems ; Geography ; Geography, Physical ; Information Science & Library Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000452083200004
出版者	TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31946
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Ma, Ting
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Res, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Ting,Zhu, Rong,Wang, Jianghao,et al. A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,2019,33(1):81-98.
APA	Ma, Ting.,Zhu, Rong.,Wang, Jianghao.,Zhao, Na.,Pei, Tao.,...&Chen, Jie.(2019).A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,33(1),81-98.
MLA	Ma, Ting,et al."A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE 33.1(2019):81-98.