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The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China
Zhao, Lin1; Zhang, Xun2; Wang, Shouyang2; Xu, Shanying2
2016
Source PublicationENERGY ECONOMICS
ISSN0140-9883
Volume53Pages:101-110
AbstractCrude oil price shocks derive from many sources, each of which may bring about different effects on macro economy variables and require completely different designs in macro-economic policy; thus, distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects. This paper establishes an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with two economies: China and the rest of the world. To assess the effects of oil price shocks, the CES production function is extended by adding oil as an input. Based on the model, the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated. The four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries, other oil supply shocks, aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities, and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Simulation results indicate the following: Oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation, while the other three shocks produce relatively long-term effects; in addition, demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in China's output and inflation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordOil demand shocks Oil supply shocks Output Inflation DSGE model China
DOI10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.017
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71101142] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71422015]
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000370886300010
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/22158
Collection系统科学研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xun
Affiliation1.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Inst Adv Res, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Lin,Zhang, Xun,Wang, Shouyang,et al. The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS,2016,53:101-110.
APA Zhao, Lin,Zhang, Xun,Wang, Shouyang,&Xu, Shanying.(2016).The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China.ENERGY ECONOMICS,53,101-110.
MLA Zhao, Lin,et al."The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China".ENERGY ECONOMICS 53(2016):101-110.
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