A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting

doi:10.1007/s10479-014-1595-5

CSpace > 系统科学研究所

	A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting
	Tang, Ling 1; Wang, Shuai 2; He, Kaijian 1; Wang, Shouyang3
	2015-11-01
发表期刊	ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN	0254-5330
卷号	234 期号:1 页码:111-132
摘要	We propose a novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting. Our method is based on the principles of "data-characteristic-based modeling" and "decomposition and ensemble". The model improves on existing decomposition ensemble learning techniques (with "decomposition and ensemble") by using "data-characteristic-based modeling" to forecast the decomposed modes. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition is first used to decompose the original nuclear energy consumption data into a series of comparatively simple modes, reducing the complexity of the data. Then, the extracted modes are thoroughly analyzed to capture hidden data characteristics. These characteristics are used to determine appropriate forecasting models for each mode. Final forecasts are obtained by combining these predicted components using an effective ensemble tool, such as least squares support vector regression. For illustration and verification purposes, we have implemented the proposed model to forecast nuclear energy consumption in China. Our numerical results demonstrate that the novel method significantly outperforms all considered benchmarks. This indicates that it is a very promising tool for forecasting complex and irregular data such as nuclear energy consumption.
关键词	Decomposition ensemble model Data-characteristic-based modeling Nuclear energy consumption forecasting Time series analysis Intelligent knowledge management
DOI	10.1007/s10479-014-1595-5
语种	英语
资助项目	National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (NSFC)[71025005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71301006] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71201054] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[91224001] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT[ZY1320] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT[ZZ1315]
WOS研究方向	Operations Research & Management Science
WOS类目	Operations Research & Management Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000362683600008
出版者	SPRINGER
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/20994
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Shuai
作者单位	1.Beijing Univ Chem Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, NCMIS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tang, Ling,Wang, Shuai,He, Kaijian,et al. A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting[J]. ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH,2015,234(1):111-132.
APA	Tang, Ling,Wang, Shuai,He, Kaijian,&Wang, Shouyang.(2015).A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting.ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH,234(1),111-132.
MLA	Tang, Ling,et al."A novel mode-characteristic-based decomposition ensemble model for nuclear energy consumption forecasting".ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 234.1(2015):111-132.