The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.049

CSpace > 系统科学研究所

	The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis
	Chai, Jian 1,4; Liang, Ting 2; Lai, Kin Keung 1,3; Zhang, Zhe George 4; Wang, Shouyang5
	2018-08-01
发表期刊	ENERGY POLICY
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	119 页码:215-225
摘要	Due to the growing pollution concerns in China, there have been major efforts to design interrelated environmental protection policies. As the policy of reducing coal consumption is implemented, China's natural gas consumption is expected to commensurately rise. Such a trend may lead to the significant impacts on China's energy security and the global gas market. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the natural gas consumption and influencing factors in a comprehensive LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework. It is found that fossil energy structure and non-clean energy structure are the most important factors followed by urbanization, per capita GDP, industrialization, and industrial energy intensity. And then, these factors from LMDI decomposition are innovatively divided into economic development and cleaning indicators when using scenario analysis to forecast China's natural gas consumption. The prediction results suggest that economic development with high clean energy system would make a significant increase in gas consumption, a commensurate increase in demand even the system of economic-energy under scenario of low economic development and low clean. As China would depend on gas imports to meet this demand, there may be a serious supply shortage by 2020. Therefore, the government should consider the future energy security issue in making economic and environmental policies.
关键词	Natural gas consumption LMDI decomposition STIRPAT model PLS regression Scenario analysis
DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.049
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71473155] ; New Star of Youth Science and Technology Plan Project in Shaanxi Province, China[2016KJXX-14] ; 2016 Annual Basic Scientific Research Project of Xidian University[JB160603]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000439671200021
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30795
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Liang, Ting
作者单位	1.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710126, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Hunan Univ, Sch Business, Changsha 410082, Hunan, Peoples R China 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Hong Kong 999077, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 4.Western Washington Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,et al. The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,119:215-225.
APA	Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,Zhang, Zhe George,&Wang, Shouyang.(2018).The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis.ENERGY POLICY,119,215-225.
MLA	Chai, Jian,et al."The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis".ENERGY POLICY 119(2018):215-225.