CSpace  > 系统科学研究所
The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis
Chai, Jian1,4; Liang, Ting2; Lai, Kin Keung1,3; Zhang, Zhe George4; Wang, Shouyang5
2018-08-01
Source PublicationENERGY POLICY
ISSN0301-4215
Volume119Pages:215-225
AbstractDue to the growing pollution concerns in China, there have been major efforts to design interrelated environmental protection policies. As the policy of reducing coal consumption is implemented, China's natural gas consumption is expected to commensurately rise. Such a trend may lead to the significant impacts on China's energy security and the global gas market. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between the natural gas consumption and influencing factors in a comprehensive LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework. It is found that fossil energy structure and non-clean energy structure are the most important factors followed by urbanization, per capita GDP, industrialization, and industrial energy intensity. And then, these factors from LMDI decomposition are innovatively divided into economic development and cleaning indicators when using scenario analysis to forecast China's natural gas consumption. The prediction results suggest that economic development with high clean energy system would make a significant increase in gas consumption, a commensurate increase in demand even the system of economic-energy under scenario of low economic development and low clean. As China would depend on gas imports to meet this demand, there may be a serious supply shortage by 2020. Therefore, the government should consider the future energy security issue in making economic and environmental policies.
KeywordNatural gas consumption LMDI decomposition STIRPAT model PLS regression Scenario analysis
DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.049
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71473155] ; New Star of Youth Science and Technology Plan Project in Shaanxi Province, China[2016KJXX-14] ; 2016 Annual Basic Scientific Research Project of Xidian University[JB160603]
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEconomics ; Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000439671200021
PublisherELSEVIER SCI LTD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30795
Collection系统科学研究所
Affiliation1.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710126, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
2.Hunan Univ, Sch Business, Changsha 410082, Hunan, Peoples R China
3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Hong Kong 999077, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
4.Western Washington Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,et al. The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2018,119:215-225.
APA Chai, Jian,Liang, Ting,Lai, Kin Keung,Zhang, Zhe George,&Wang, Shouyang.(2018).The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis.ENERGY POLICY,119,215-225.
MLA Chai, Jian,et al."The future natural gas consumption in China: Based on the LMDI-STIRPAT-PLSR framework and scenario analysis".ENERGY POLICY 119(2018):215-225.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Chai, Jian]'s Articles
[Liang, Ting]'s Articles
[Lai, Kin Keung]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Chai, Jian]'s Articles
[Liang, Ting]'s Articles
[Lai, Kin Keung]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Chai, Jian]'s Articles
[Liang, Ting]'s Articles
[Lai, Kin Keung]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.